Dynamical lifetime survey of geostationary transfer orbits

In this paper, we study the long-term dynamical evolution of highly elliptical orbits in the medium-Earth orbit region around the Earth. The real population consists primarily of Geosynchronous Transfer Orbits (GTOs), launched at specific inclinations, Molniya-type satellites and related debris. We performed a suite of long-term numerical integrations (up to 200 years) within a realistic dynamical model, aimed primarily at recording the dynamical lifetime of such orbits (defined as the time needed for atmospheric reentry) and understanding its dependence on initial conditions and other parameters, such as the area-to-mass ratio (A / m). Our results are presented in the form of 2-D lifetime maps, for different values of inclination, A / m, and drag coefficient. We find that the majority of small debris (\(>70\%\), depending on the inclination) can naturally reenter within 25–90 years, but these numbers are significantly less optimistic for large debris (e.g., upper stages), with the notable exception of those launched from high latitude (Baikonur). We estimate the reentry probability and mean dynamical lifetime for different classes of GTOs and we find that both quantities depend primarily and strongly on initial perigee altitude. Atmospheric drag and higher A / m values extend the reentry zones, especially at low inclinations. For high inclinations, this dependence is weakened, as the primary mechanisms leading to reentry are overlapping lunisolar resonances. This study forms part of the EC-funded (H2020) “ReDSHIFT” project.