前期500 hPa高度场与贵州降水可预报性的关系

基于秩序统计量三因子最优子集回归求最大复相关系数的方法，采用北半球500hPa逐月高度场和贵州15个站1～12月各月降水资料，研究前期3～5个月500hPa高度场预报后期贵州各站月降水量所提供的可预报性时空分布变化特征。结果表明：从空间分布上看，除夏季外，可预报性存在着北高南低的空间分布特点。从时间变化上看，2、6月降水的可预报性没有4、12月降水的可预报性好。另外，虽然影响贵州降水的前期环流集中分布在主要的环流关键区，但不同时段提供的预报信息存在差异。

IMPACT OF THE EARLY NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 500hPa GEOPOTENTIALHEIGHT ON THE PRECIPITATION IN GUIZHOU

Based on three factors optimum subset regression method, the predictability about spatial and temporal distribution features through using the preceding 3-5 months 500 hPa height field to predict the late monthly precipitation of 15 sampling stations in Guizhou was analyzed. There are main research results as follows. In the first place, using 500 hPa height field to predict monthly precipitation in north areas of Guizhou is much better than in south except for summer in terms of spatial distribution. In the second place, as far as the temporal variation is concerned, the predictability of 500 hPa height field toward Guizhou monthly rainfall is higher in April and December but is lower in February and June than other time stages. In the final analysis, although the early predictors of affecting Guizhou precipitation mainly focus on key regions that have an importance significance of the weather-climate, different time interval predictors possessing forecast information are significant.