1990—2019年江苏片区入太湖水量变化及原因分析

为了对江苏片区主要入太湖水量的原因进行定量化分析研究,基于1990-2019年的气象数据、遥感数据以及沿江引水量数据,借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验与突变检验法、Envi5.3以及Pearson系数法分别对近30年入湖水量、建筑用地、降雨量和蒸发量与引江水量进行了突变检验,并以入湖水量为因变量,对各因素间的相关性和贡献度做了量化研究.结果表明,研究区域的入湖水量近30年来上升趋势达到了95%,城市化率、气象条件和沿江引水量都是导致其变化的主要原因,其中人为干扰(城市化率和沿江引水量)与自然影响(气象条件)的贡献度各占50%.未来建议强化海绵城市的建设,合理科学地对沿江水资源进行调度使用,以降低城镇化率上升与外部引水增加带来的影响.

Analysis on the water quantity changes from Jiangsu section entering Lake Taihu from 1990 to 2019

In order to carry out a quantitative analysis and research on the main reasons for the amount of water entering Lake Taihu in Jiangsu, we conducted mutation tests on the amount of water entering the lake, construction land, rainfall and evaporation, and the amount of water diversion from the river in the past 30 years, using Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation test method, Envi5.3 and Pearson coefficient method, based on the meteorological data, remote sensing data, and water diversion data along the river from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, taking the amount of water entering the lake as the dependent variable, we quantitatively evaluate the correlation and contribution of each factor. The results show that the amount of water entering the lake in the study area has risen to 95% in the past 30 years. The urbanization rate, meteorological conditions, and the amount of water along the river are the main reasons for its changes. Among them, human interference (urbanization rate and amount of water along the river) and natural influences (weather conditions) each account for 50%. In the future, it is recommended to strengthen the construction of sponge cities, and rationally and scientifically dispatch and use water resources along the river to reduce the impact of the increase in urbanization and external water diversion.