|
|||||
|
|
| IAP AGCM模式对地面气温长期趋势的预报分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 贾晓静,韩启群. IAP AGCM模式对地面气温长期趋势的预报分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2011, 16(6): 753-759 |
| 作者姓名： | 贾晓静 韩启群 |
| 作者单位： | 浙江大学地球科学系,杭州,310027 |
| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助2009QNA3001 |
| 摘 要： | 分析了1979～2004年共26年中国台站地面气温的观测资料以及中国科学院大气物理研究所的大气环流模式IAP AGCM在夏季和冬季的季节集合预报结果对地面气温长期变化趋势的预报.分析结果表明,在所研究的26年中,中国大部分地区是一个增温的趋势,其中冬季增温比夏季增温显著.IAP AGCM集合预报不能很好地预报出观测资料... |
| 关 键 词： | 长期气候变化 数值模式 集合预报 季节预报 |
Analysis of the Long Term Climate Trend of the Surface Air Temperature in IAP AGCM Seasonal Ensemble Forecast |
|
| Jia Xiaojing and Han Qiqun. Analysis of the Long Term Climate Trend of the Surface Air Temperature in IAP AGCM Seasonal Ensemble Forecast[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2011, 16(6): 753-759 | |
| Authors: | Jia Xiaojing and Han Qiqun |
| Affiliation: | JIA Xiaojing and HAN Qiqun Department of Earth Sciences,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou310027 |
| Abstract: | The influence of the long-term linear trends on the seasonal forecast skill of the surface air temperature in summer and winter over China is investigated using both observations and ensemble seasonal forecast output from the numerical model IAP AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)during the period from 1979 to 2004. The results show that the temperature during the 26 years show a warming trend over most of China while the warmin... |
| Keywords: | long-term climatic change numerical model ensemble forecast seasonal forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》下载全文 | |