渤海盆地地震周期模式和地震危险性分析

根据历史地震资料,分析了渤海中部与胶辽海峡的地震周期模式。结果表明,时间可预测模式比滑动可预测模式更接近胶辽海峡历史地震的时间序列特征。按时间可预测模型外推,胶辽海峡下次强震可能发生在２１世纪初期,渤中地区历史地震序列特征复杂,一些关键地硅的震级修订造成预测模型改变,使渤中地区地震发生时间的不确定性增大,不利于渤海盆地地震的长期预测。影响长期预测准确性的主要因素是历史地震震级的可靠性、准确性、直接

Seismic period model and seismic risk analysis in Bohai Sea basin

The earthquake period model in middle Bohai Sea and Jiaoliao channel is analyzed based on history earthquake data. The conclusion is that the time predictable model is more closer to the time series character history earthquakes than the slip predictable model. According to the time predictablemodel, it is concluded that the next strong earthquake may occur in the beginning of the 21 st century in Jiaoliao channel. The slip predictable model can beapplied in middle Bohai Sea, but the increase in the uncertainty of time predictionof earthquakes occurred is unfavorable for long term earthquake prediction there.The main factor which affects the accuracy of long term prediction is the reliability of the history earthquake magnitude, and it affects the establishment of the reccurence model directly.