水资源约束下的内陆河流域农村劳动力转移研究——以黑河流域张掖市为例

农村劳动力转移和城乡协调发展是各国工业化与城市化发展的普遍现象。目前中国已进入城市化的快速发展期,但同时面临着严重的"三农"问题。内陆河流的劳动力转移除了受经济条件、体制条件的制约外,还深受水资源条件的约束。通过对水资源自然赋存格局和变化状态,时空分布与利用关系的分析,透视资源性缺水与结构性缺水,证明水资源条件的约束性持续存在并有加重的趋势。在保证生态环境良性运行和经济社会持续发展的前提下,分析计算水资源对人口和经济的承载力,结果表明,人口处于超载状态。因此以同步实现水资源的高效配置、缓解水资源压力和农村劳动力转移为主线,通过建立回归模型,分三个层次具体探讨了水资源约束条件下,农村劳动力在农业内部转移、从农业向非农业转移、从农村向城镇转移规模。通过上述劳动力三个层次的转移分析,基本上能够把水资源承载力条件下超载的人口转移出去。

Rural labor-force migration under the restriction of water resource in the inland river basin:A case of Zhangye City in Heihe River Basin

The inland river basin is obturation and frailty as the ecology-economy-society system relatively,and water resource is the linchpin of subsistence and development.There is dual-contradictory because of lacking of water on resource and structure;on the one hand,using-water for economy occupies using-water for ecology,on the other hand,using-water for agriculture occupies using-water for industry and life.As a result ultimately,the use pattern of water resource is dispersed,high expenditure,the low benefit.The core of contradictory is the chain of urban-rural.If the that rural-labor can not migrate from rural to urban,the change of use pattern of water resource is impossibe to happen,and the contradictory of using water in urban-rural is also difficult to solve.The paper thinks that the increase of the using benefit of water resources and using efficiency of water resource by restructuring industry is the premise to realize rural labor-force migrates to the industry.To determine the direction of rural labor-force migration,the paper analyzes advantage and disadvantage of the rural labor-force migration between interior industry of agricultural and exterior industry.Furthermore,the paper quantifies the scale of rural labor-force migration and the scale of urban development and the probability of the rural labor-force migrate to urban with mathematics model.