山东省城市规模分布研究

文章选择1990，1995-2001年山东17个地级城市用地面积的资料，运用位序-规模法则分析了城市土地利用规模的变化规律，运用分形理论阐释了城市用地的位序-规模曲线。结果显示：（1）以建成区面积作为衡量城市规模的指标，17个城市规模分布符合位序-规模法则，拟合曲线的判定系数都在0．758以上。（2）根据位序-规模曲线的形态，这些城市按建成区面积可分为3类。（3）城市建成区用地的位序-规模曲线有平行向前推进的特点，这为预测17个城市未来建成区用地规模提供了很好的基础。（4）城市用地规模分布的均衡度不断增强，建成区用地规模总量将持续增加。

Research of the City Size Distribution of Shandong Province

This paper analyzed changes in urban built-up area of Shandong 17 major cities in the 1990s,using the rank-size law,which is often employed in the study of city's population-size distribution.Then,we explained the rank-size curves using theory of fractal and the results including the following several aspects.Firstly,the city size distribution in terms of urban built-up area perfectly accorded with rank-size rule,and the coefficient of determination(R~2) were all more than 0.758.Secondly,according to the curve shape,we claimed that Shandong 17-city could be divided into three categories.Thirdly,the Shandong city system in terms of built-up area is relatively well developed,and the rank-size distribution curve therefore moved in a parallel evolution manner from 1990 to 2001.Fourthly,the rank-size distribution curve revealed that the rate of urban land expansion was markedly different among these three groups of cities during the past decade.Lastly,this study suggested that the rank-size law could be a good tool to predict future urban expansion in Shandong.