预报员在未来天气预报中的作用探讨

在没有数值天气预报的年代 ,天气预报是由预报员作出的 ,随着数值天气预报业务水平的不断提高 ,它首先取代了预报员的天气形势预报 ,目前正进入取代部分天气要素预报的时代。未来 1 0～ 2 0年中尺度数值天气预报和集合预报以及后处理技术将获得重大进展 ,客观预报有可能取代目前预报员的一些预报项目 ,但是预报员的作用仍然是不可缺少的 ,但需要按与时俱进的观点 ,认真分析客观预报与主观预报的最佳结合点 ,以不断提高天气预报水平

The Role of Human Forecasters in the Future

In the ages when NWP didn't come out, weather forecasts were made by the forecasters. With NWP's improvement, NWP took the place of synoptic forecasting in first step, and at present it even takes place of the part of weather elements. In the next two decades mesoscale NWP and ensembles will be improved very much, although objective forecasts may replace some part of forecasts made by forecasters, but forecasters will play an important role in weather forecasts. We need to analyze the combination between objective and subjective forecasts to improve weather forecast further.