河北省南部干旱特征及其对冬小麦产量的影响分析

以河北省南部冬小麦产区为例,基于标准化降水指数(SPI),采用数理统计方法,分析了近40 a(1971—2010年)冬小麦生育期干旱的时空变化特征,干旱对冬小麦产量的影响及干旱风险特征。结果表明:河北省南部干旱在空间上具有一致性,在时间上春季干旱20世纪90年代少于20世纪70年代和80年代,冬小麦全生育期干旱无明显变化。河北省石家庄地区冬小麦产量受干旱影响较小,沧州地区影响大,其他地区一般主要受春季干旱的影响。干旱的影响与各地灌溉条件及管理水平有关。冬小麦全生育期,邯郸西南部为干旱较高风险区;邢台、邯郸局部地区为干旱低风险区;其他大部分地区为干旱中风险区。

Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Its Effect on Winter Wheat in South Part of Hebei Province

Taking the case of winter wheat production area in south part of Hebei province, based on the weather data (1971-2010) and SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), the spatial and temporaldrought variation characteristics of winter wheat growing period and its effect on winter wheat yield and drought risk characteristics were analyzed by statistic methods. The results show that the drought distribution has spatial consistency. In the time distributions, the spring drought in 1990s is less than 1970s and 1980s, but there is little change for the whole winter wheat growing period in the south part of Hebei province. The winter wheat yield is mainly affected by drought in Cangzhou, but has little effect in Shijiazhuang, other areas are mainly affected by spring drought. The effect of drought is related to irrigation conditions and management level.In the whole growing period of winter wheat, the southwestern part of Handan is an area with high drought risk, and some areas of Xingtai and Handan are in the low risk areas, and other regions are in the middle drought risk areas.