Estimating baselines for climate change for less developed countries: the case of the Sahel

Abstract

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol provide mechanisms for assisting less developed countries that are adversely affected by climate change. Such assistance would need a baseline, which ideally would set a precise date for specific impacts of climate change. This article presents the results of statistical tests that we carried out and, for the African region of the Sahel, finds that for precipitation (affecting food supply), impacts due to climate change can be ‘dated’ to the year 1967, when precipitation fell drastically, affecting the local food supply. Such a statistically robust benchmark would be useful to the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) of the UNFCCC. The method illustrates how other baselines may be established for the important work of the SBSTA.