基于特征椭圆的中国经济空间分异研究

根据克鲁格曼的“两个自然”理论,运用空间统计SDE方法,在GIS技术的支持下,基于中国国土空间特征椭圆系列——国土均衡分布椭圆、国土地形分布椭圆、人口分布椭圆等,在空间上定量刻画了中国经济空间分异的基本特征,并为分析经济空间分异提供了新的方法参考。主要结论如下：① 在“两个自然”的分异作用下,中国经济空间分异主要以东-西方向为主。相对于国土均衡分布椭圆,国土地形分布椭圆明显偏西,长、短轴均明显减小,这反映出中国高地势主要集中分布在西部;中国人口空间分布靠近东部地区,其椭圆长、短轴长度均显著减小,充分表现出了经济活动的空间分异特征和空间聚集特征;② 国土地形等“第一自然”要素对社会经济活动的控制作用显著。人口分布椭圆对于地形分布椭圆的空间分异系数为89.55%,其93%的空间展布范围位于胡焕庸线的东南,且分布轴线基本与胡焕庸线平行;③ 在“第二自然”聚集机制的作用下,中国城市体系人口、GDP主体集中在胡焕庸线东南方约20%的大陆国土面积上,且二者之间也存在着明显的空间差异。从“第一自然”要素的空间分异和控制作用来看,胡焕庸线以西地区,特别是西北侧地区发展经济、集聚人口的功能较弱。同时,由于区域发展的内在核心动力聚集机制的空间差异性,区域发展的过程也呈现不平衡的特征。从兼顾效率和公平的角度出发,可通过重点培育人口分布较为集中的成渝城市群、关中城市群等中西部经济增长极拉动中国经济增长和市场空间向中西部发展;可通过制定相关政策吸引人口向GDP分布椭圆北部地区流动、聚集,发挥人口的红利作用,推进经济增长由南向北发展。

Projecting the Spatial Variation of Economic Based on the Specific Ellipses in China

This study described the spatial variation in China spatial explicitly through a series of ellipses according to Krugman's "first and second natural" theory. The ellipse of national geometric profile in China was taken as the original state of spatial variation. The first nature variation could be explained through the ellipse of topographical distribution in China, and the second nature variation was represented by the spatial distribution of population. The results are as followings. 1）The spatial variation is mainly between the eastern and the western area in China. The spatial coverage of topographical distribution ellipse is in the west, and it is much smaller than the equilibrium distribution ellipse which is in accordance with the topographical characteristics that the west is higher than the east in China. The population distribution ellipse is mainly covering the North China Plain and the Middle and Lower Yangtze Valley Plain and its spatial coverage is much smaller. It is proved the spatial variation of the first nature and the spatial agglomeration of the second nature. 2）The spatial variation from the first natural factors is significant in China. 93% of the population distribution ellipse range is located in the southeast of Hu's line, and the main axis is almost parallel to Hu's line. The spatial variation index of population distribution ellipse to the topographical distribution ellipse is 89.55%. 3）For the prefectural-level cities, the population ellipse and GDP ellipse are aggregated in the southeast of Hu's line which is 20% of the mainland area in China. There is the spatial disparity between the population and GDP distribution. In general, the natural endowments between the east and west in China resulted in the unbalanced beginning of regional development. It is shown that the regions in the north of Hu's line, especially in the northwest area, is weak to gathering the population. Meanwhile, spatial differences of the agglomeration which is the inner core of the regional developing momentum present the unbalanced process of regional development. From the perspective of both efficiency and equity, the promotion of Chengdu-Chongqing, Guanzhong and other major economic zones which is with the large population is relatively could stimulate the economic growth in central and western China, and to attract the population concentration in the north part of GDP distribution ellipse could promote the economy development from the south to the north. In addition, Standard deviation ellipse method can not only subtly describe the spatial variation of the different features, but also can quantitatively analyze the extent of spatial variation, and it is proved to be a new method for reference to study the economic spatial variation.