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| 对于“Stuart Crampin对Jordan等‘可操作性地震预报:发展现状和使用手册[2011]’评论”的回复 | |
| 引用本文： | Thomas H Jordan,Yun-Tai Chen,Paolo Gasparini,Raul Madariaga,Ian Main,Gennady Sobolev,Koshun Yamaoka,王生文.对于“Stuart Crampin对Jordan等‘可操作性地震预报:发展现状和使用手册[2011]’评论”的回复[J].国际地震动态,2013(6). |
| 作者姓名： | Thomas H Jordan Yun-Tai Chen Paolo Gasparini Raul Madariaga Ian Main Gennady Sobolev Koshun Yamaoka 王生文 |
| 作者单位： | 1. Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, USA;University of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, USA 2. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China 3. AMRA(Analisi e Monitoraggio del Rischio Ambientale)Scarl, Napoli, Italy;Università di Napoli "Federico Ⅱ", Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, Napoli, Italy 4. (E)cole Normale Supérieure, Département des Géosciences, Paris, France 5. University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom 6. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma 1, Rome, Italy 7. Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece 8. Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 9. Research Center for Seismology, Volcanology and Disaster Mitigation, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan 10. 中国地震局地球物理研究所 |
| 摘 要： | 在对国际地震预报委员会(ICEF)报告1]的评论中,Crampin2]声称剪切波分裂变化可以在短时间尺度上预测地震,并且可靠性高,技术性强.他对ICEF的一个重要发现提出挑战——到目前为止,没有任何方法具有如此高的预测能力.特别是,Crampin宣称,在意大利中部三孔应力监测站点(SMS)剪切波分裂观测可以监测SMS1000 km以内的所有破坏性地震(M≥5)前的应力积累和应力释放(裂缝贯通). |
Reply to "Comment on ' Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation by Jordan et al.[2011] ' by Stuart Crampin" |
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