岩溶塌陷机理定量研究的初步思考

岩溶塌陷作为世界上岩溶地区最为普遍的地质灾害和环境地质问题之一，对人类社会发展、工程建设等方面产生了严重的危害。二十世纪七十年代以来，国内外学者对岩溶塌陷的发育规律、分布特征、致塌原因、成因机理、勘测技术、防治措施、监测预报和数值模拟等方面做了大量的工作，取得了丰富的研究成果，由于岩溶塌陷发生和发展在地表以下而不易察觉和探测，其具有突发性、隐蔽性、多因素性、不确定性和模糊性等特点，目前统一的、系统的、权威的岩溶塌陷的成因机理及定量预测等理论和认识仍在逐步完善中。本文根据岩溶塌陷机理研究现状及发展趋势，从复杂性科学角度探讨了岩溶塌陷机理定量研究中的基本科学问题，对岩溶塌陷机理定量研究进行了初步思考，在参考借鉴多个相关领域技术方法的基础上，梳理了定量研究的内容，探讨了定量研究的方法、技术思路，以期在一定程度上丰富岩溶塌陷机理定量研究理论体系，推动岩溶塌陷机理定量研究进程。

Preliminary thinking of quantitative research on the mechanism of karst collapse

The karst collapse,as most widespread geological disasters and environmental geological problems in karst areas in the world,has had a serious hazard for the development of human society and the construc-tion of engineering projects as well as other aspects.Since the 1 970s,both domestic and foreign scholars have done a lot of works on fields as development regularity,distribution characteristics,collapse cause,ge-netic mechanism,survey techniques,control measures,monitoring and forecasting as well as simulation of karst collapse,which have achieved abundant research results.Being buried deep below the surface and diffi-cult to be detected and probed,karst collapse is of the following features as sudden,concealment,multiple influence factors,uncertainty and ambiguity,so the unified,systematic and authoritative theory and under-standing on the mechanism and quantitative prediction of karst collapse are still in gradually perfecting process.Based on the mechanism of karst collapse status and development trend,from the perspective of complexity science,the basic scientific questions of the mechanism and quantitative prediction as well as quantitative study methods are discussed in this paper.On the basis of referencing multi-technical methods from several related subjects,in order to enrich karst collapse mechanism quantitative research,this paper has methodized the contents of quantitative research,explored the quantitative research methods,analyzed quantitative research techniques and put forth research approaches.