地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论

为了分析阐明突发地质灾害风险评估领域的一些热点问题，在概要地分析地质灾害风险评估技术指南编写的目的、基本原则和结构层次、核心内容的基础上，重点探索了地质灾害易发程度、危险性和风险评估的工作流程。初步提出地质灾害风险评估应该遵循的6条基本原则、结构层次及核心内容；初步提出定性分析－定量化评价相结合的地质灾害风险评估技术方法，提倡实用性技术方法和GIS技术的推广应用；初步提出地质灾害易发性、危险性和风险评估区划的基本工作流程。最后，简要地讨论了地质灾害风险评估的一些主要难点和易于混淆的问题，为地质灾害风险评估技术指南的编制和修改完善提供参考依据。

Preliminary discussion on technical guideline for geohazard risk assessment

In order to analyze and clarify some key issues in the field of sudden geo-hazard risk assessment, on the basis of general analysis of purposes, basic principles, structure and core contents of the technical guideline for geo-hazard risk assessment, this paper has focused on the working process of risk, probability and possible consequence assessment. Six basic principles, structure and core contents which should be followed are put forward; qualitative analysis with combination of quantitative evaluation method and techniques are achieved with emphasis on practical techniques and GIS application; basic working process of risk, probability and possible consequence geo-hazard assessment are put forward. Lastly, there are some brief discussions on some of the major difficulties which are easy to be confused in terms of geo-hazard risk assessment, which can be referred to for the technical guideline revision and improvement.