基于随机前沿模型的中国水产品进口贸易影响因素分析和潜力估算

中国是全球水产品的主要生产与出口大国，同时也是水产品进口大国。文章以中国水产品进口影响因素作为研究对象，对近年来中国水产品进口贸易现状进行分析，并测算对华出口水产品国家的贸易潜力。文章根据2008—2018年面板数据构建中国水产品进口贸易的随机前沿引力模型，研究中国人口数量、各国与中国的距离、各国渔业总产量、贸易伙伴国与中国以外国家签订贸易协定数量、各国清关效率和各国物流效率对于外国出口我国水产品的影响。通过分析发现：（1）中国人口数量、各国与中国的距离、各贸易伙伴国渔业产量、各国海关通关效率促进了贸易伙伴国对华出口水产品量；而伙伴国贸易协定数量、贸易伙伴国国内的流通效率反作用于贸易伙伴国对华出口水产品量。（2）通过测度对华水产品出口国的贸易效率和贸易潜力，发现2008—2018年主要对华出口水产品国家贸易效率和贸易潜力呈现上升的趋势。

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Potential Estimation of Aquatic Product Imports in China: A case study of stochastic frontier gravity model

China is a major producer and exporter of aquatic products in the world, as well as a major importer of aquatic products. This paper took the influencing factors of China''s aquatic product import as the research object, analyzed the current situation of China''s aquatic product import trade in recent years, and calculated the trade potential of China''s aquatic product export countries. Based on the panel data from 2008 to 2018, this paper constructed a stochastic frontier gravity model of China''s aquatic product import trade, and studied the population of China, the distance between countries and China, the total fishery output of each country, the number of trade agreements signed between trading partners and countries other than China, the customs clearance of each country, and the impact of efficiency and logistics efficiency of various countries on foreign exports of Chinese aquatic products. Through the analysis, it was found that: (1) China''s population, the distance between countries and China, the fishery output of each trading partner country, and the customs clearance efficiency of each country could promote the export of aquatic products from the trading partner countries to China; The domestic circulation efficiency had a negative impact on the export of aquatic products from trading partners to China. (2) By measuring the trade efficiency and trade potential of aquatic product exporting countries to China, it was found that the trade efficiency and trade potential of the main aquatic product exporting countries to China from 2008 to 2018 had shown an upward trend.