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| 黄淮海平原气候变化及其对耕地生产潜力的影响 | |
| 引用本文： | 姜群鸥,邓祥征,战金艳,刘兴权,唐华秀.黄淮海平原气候变化及其对耕地生产潜力的影响[J].地理与地理信息科学,2007,23(5):82-85. |
| 作者姓名： | 姜群鸥 邓祥征 战金艳 刘兴权 唐华秀 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中南大学地学与环境工程学院,湖南,长沙,410083 2. 中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京,100101;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 3. 北京师范大学环境学院,北京,100875 4. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏,南京,210093 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(70503025)，中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-305-2、KSCX2-YW-N-039) |
| 摘 要： | 利用1991年和2000年黄淮海平原气象台站的历史观测资料,分析该地区气温、降水的变化趋势,并利用农业生态地带(AEZ)模型估算黄淮海平原各农业生态区的耕地生产潜力。通过分析气温、降水与耕地生产潜力的关系,评价气候变化对耕地生产潜力的影响。研究发现,黄淮海平原耕地生产潜力与降水量、气温呈显著正相关。对各农业生态区的回归分析表明,如果气温或降水量提高10%,耕地生产潜力将分别提高3.2%与0.3%。该研究对制订应对气候变化、保护耕地与提高耕地生产潜力方面的决策具有参考价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 农业生态地带模型 气候变化 耕地生产潜力 黄淮海平原 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-0504（2007）05-0082-04 |
Climate Change and Its Impacts on the Agricultural Productivity Potential on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain |
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| JIANG Qun-ou,DENG Xiang-zheng,ZHAN Jin-yan,LIU Xing-quan,TANG Hua-xiu.Climate Change and Its Impacts on the Agricultural Productivity Potential on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2007,23(5):82-85. | |
| Authors: | JIANG Qun-ou DENG Xiang-zheng ZHAN Jin-yan LIU Xing-quan TANG Hua-xiu |
| Institution: | 1. School of C-eosciences and Environment Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 ; 2. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing lO0101 ; 3. Institute of C-eographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 ; 4. College of Environmental Sciences , Beij ing Normal University , Beij ing 100875 5. College of Geographic and Oceanographic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impacts of climates on agricultural productivity potential of Huang-Huai-Hai plain using AEZ model.The temporal and spatial patterns of climatic changes on the Huang-Huai-Hai plain are explored.And then based on the multi-layers of information including climatic changes,cultivated land uses,soil fertility,terrain conditions and etc.,the agricultural productivity potential is estimated and the changing characteristics of cultivated land are analyzed.And lastly,the analysis shows that there is positive and linear relationship between air temperature and agricultural productivity potential, as well as rainfall and agricultural productivity potential.If the temperature or rainfall increases 10%,the agricultural productivity potential increases 3.2% or 0.3% respectively.The results provide valuable information to formulate the decisions in mitigating the impacts from climatic changes,protecting the loss of cultivated land and realizing the regional agricultural development. |
| Keywords: | agro-ecological zone model climate changes agricultural productivity potential the Huang-Huai-Hai plain |
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