利用奇异值分解方法预测东北地区夏季气温

利用1961-2002年东北地区80个测站的夏季气温和冬季北太平洋海温场资料，采用奇异值分解技术，探讨了前冬北太平洋海温与东北地区夏季气温之间的关系。结果表明，前冬北太平洋海温场与东北地区夏季气温之间存在着较好的相关关系，并基于SVD(Singular Value Decomposition)分析的结果，建立了用前冬北太平洋海温场预测东北地区夏季气温定量空间分布的方法。从近几年的试报效果看，此方法具有一定的预测能力和较好的稳定性。最后，采用此方法和2002年冬季北太平洋海温场实况资料对2003年东北地区夏季气温做出了预测。

Prediction of Summer Temperature with SVD in Northeast China

Base on the summer temperature from 80 observational stations of Northeast China and North Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) data from 1961 to 2002, the relationship between the SST of the preceding winter and the summer temperature in Northeast China is studied with the Singular Value Decomposition(SVD). The results show that the SST in preceding winter has a very close relationship with the summer temperature in Northeast China. The prediction method based on the SVD is developed. The predict-examination in the last years shows that the method has the ability of prediction and steady character.