辽东湾近岸海域油污染生态风险评价研究

以2014–2015年海洋调查数据为基础,Arc GIS软件为平台,通过选取致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性相关影响因子,基于灾害理论和层次分析法构建了辽东湾近岸海域油污染生态风险评价指标体系、评价模型及评价标准,将致灾因子危险性等级和承灾体脆弱性等级进行叠加,从而实现对研究海域油污染生态风险进行综合评价,并对该海域溢油风险可能导致的环境影响进行了系统分析、诊断和综合评价。结果表明:辽东湾近岸海域风险处于较高风险,应加强对环境敏感区域的保护,并完善环境监测体系。本文同时为重要湿地生态敏感区合理配置溢油应急资源和实施风险决策提供技术支撑,也为目前事故后的危机管理到预防性风险管理的转变提供理论依据。

Ecological risk assessment of oil spills in coastal waters of Liaodong Bay

Using oceanographic survey data from 2014 to 2015 and ArcGIS software as a platform, we selected the related vulnerability factors of hazard-bearing bodies and hazard-inducing factor risks to establish an assessment index system for oil spills in estuaries and coastal waters. We based this system on disaster theory and the analytic hierarchy process. We also established evaluation criteria and an evaluation model for synthetically appraising the study area using superimposed hazard-factor risk and hazard grades. In addition, we performed a systematic analysis, diagnosis, and comprehensive evaluation of the potential environmental impacts of oil spills in the area. The results show that the coastal waters in Liaodong Bay are at high risk and that the protection of environmentally sensitive areas should be strengthened and the environmental monitoring system improved. Finally, important ecologically sensitive wetland areas should be provided for the technical support of the rational allocation of oil spill emergency resources and the implementation of risk decision-making. In addition, a theoretical basis should be established for changing from crisis management to preventive risk management.