火山活动对北半球平流层气候异常变化的影响

文中利用逐次滤波法滤除北半球平流层70 hPa约15~22 km高空大气温度异常变化中太阳活动的影响之后，进一步分析了火山活动的气候效应，分析结果表明，火山活动能引起平流层较大幅度增温，对于北半球70hPa高空气候异常变化的影响超过了总方差的30%；火山活动影响最显著的高度是平流层70 hPa约15~22 km高空，由此高度向上或向下，火山活动的影响都逐渐减小；火山活动引起平流层大气升温的同时还将引起对流层大气降温，其分界线大致位于对流层顶300 hPa附近；强火山爆发如皮纳图博火山爆发、阿贡火山爆发和堪察加北楮缅奴等火山爆发是引起未来两年左右平流层中下层温度异常变化最重要的因素，其方差贡献率超过百分之五十三！；火山喷发高度越高，引起平流层增温效应的层次也越高；北半球大气温度异常变化对南半球火山活动响应的滞后时间比北半球火山活动长. 平流层高空气候异常变化还具有显著的22年变化周期，分析认为是大气温度场对太阳磁场磁性周期22年异常变化的响应，其方差贡献率超过9%.

The influence of volcanic activities on the abnormal changes of climate in stratosphere of the northern hemisphere

Using successive filtering analysis method,this paper filters the influence of solar activities from the atmospheric anomalous temperature at about 15~22km high altitude or 70 hPa pressure level in the stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere,and then analyzes the climate effect of volcanic activities.Results show that volcanic activities can cause great increasing of temperature in the stratosphere.The influence on abnormal changes of climate at 70 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere exceeds 30% of the whole variance.Going up or down from this altitude,the influence of volcanic activities decreases gradually.At the same time,the results also show that volcanic activities can cause the atmosphere temperature in the troposphere decrease,as the division lying at the top of troposphere,about 300hPa.In addition,strong volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo,El Chichon, Agung are the most important factor which give rise to abnormal temperature change in middle and low part of the stratosphere.Its contribution of variance is more than 53%.The higher the volcanic erupts,the greater the temperature changes.The response of air temperature abnormal change in northern hemisphere lags much more time in volcanic activity in northern hemisphere than that in southern hemisphere. The upper level abnormal changes of climate in the stratosphere have a marked period of 22 years,which is considered as the response of atmosphere temperature field to abnormal changes of solar magnetic field with a period of 22 years.The variance contribution rate exceeds 9%.