The WRF model performance for the simulation of heavy precipitating events over Ahmedabad during August 2006 |
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Authors: | S K Deb T P Srivastava C M Kishtawal |
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Institution: | (1) Atmospheric Sciences Division, Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad, 380 015, India;(2) Indian Air Force, AFCNWP, Subroto Park, New Delhi, 110 010, India |
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Abstract: | The summer monsoon season of the year 2006 was highlighted by an unprecedented number of monsoon lows over the central and
the western parts of India, particularly giving widespread rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan. Ahmedabad had received 540.2mm
of rainfall in the month of August 2006 against the climatological mean of 219.8mm. The two spells of very heavy rainfall
of 108.4mm and 97.7mm were recorded on 8 and 12 August 2006 respectively. Due to meteorological complexities involved in replicating
the rainfall occurrences over a region, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW version) modeling system with two different
cumulus schemes in a nested configuration is chosen for simulating these events. The spatial distributions of large-scale
circulation and moisture fields have been simulated reasonably well in this model, though there are some spatial biases in
the simulated rainfall pattern. The rainfall amount over Ahmedabad has been underestimated by both the cumulus parameterization
schemes. The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall is done by calculating the categorical skill scores like frequency
bias, threat scores (TS) and equitable threat scores (ETS). In this case the KF scheme has outperformed the GD scheme for
the low precipitation threshold. |
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Keywords: | Rainfall TRMM inner and outer domains |
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