2008年1-2月江西低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析评估

受北方较强冷空气和西南暖湿气流共同影响，2008年1月12日-2月2日，江西出现了一次有气象记录以来最严重的持续低温、雨雪、冰冻灾害性天气。对这次灾害性天气的基本气候特征及其影响进行分析评估，有利于为今后抗御类似灾害和其他气象灾害提供参考。为此，从天气气候特点、成灾原因及影响等方面进行分析评估后发现，此次灾害影响范围大，受灾人数多，损失重，1月22—27日大范围冻雨，以及1月28—29日和1月31日～2月2日两场大雪，使危害迅速加剧；灾害影响涉及社会各行各业，其中受灾最为严重的有交通、电力、通信、农业、林业等部门；影响因子以低温、冰冻（道路结冰、电线积冰）、雪压等为主，另外还有雨雪、冰雪融化等；冻雨强度大，低温、雨雪和冰冻天气范围广、持续时间长等，是此次罕见灾害的直接原因；此外，承灾体设计标准太低、应急准备不够充分等是导致灾害损失严重的重要因素。

Analysis and Evaluation of the Low Temperature, Sleet and Frost Disaster during January to February 2008 in Jiangxi

Influenced by the strong cold air and the southwest warm-humid current, the most serious continuous low temperature, sleet and frost event occurred during Jan. 12 to Feb. 2, 2008. The essential climatic characteristic and its influence are evaluated. By analyzing the aspects of weather and climate characteristic, disaster causation and influence, the results show that this disaster covered a wide area, involved a large number of victims, and caused a big loss. The wide range freezing rain in January 22-27 and the two heavy snows in January 28-29 and January 31-February 2 aggravated the situation rapidly. The disaster affected various trades and occupations, and had the most serious influence on the departments such as transportation, electric power, communication, agriculture, forestry, and so on. The primary influence factors were the low temperature, the frost （road icing, ice accumulation on electric wire）, the snow pressure, and also the sleet and the melting of snow and ice. The significant intensity of the heavy freezing rain, and the wide extension and the long duration of the low temperature, sleet and frost and so on, were the immediate causations of this rare disaster. In addition, the lower design standard of the disaster objects and the simultaneous spring transportation contributed mainly to the serious loss.