从新丰江水库地震的环境条件讨论水诱发地震的研究及其预测

新丰江水库诱发6.1级地震与库区存在库水渗透(漏)—储积(存)及孕(诱)震的活动构造有关。水库诱发地震预测应重视库区总体环境条的研究。对比新丰江库及长江三峡水库的环境组合条件,认为三峡水库三斗坪坝址诱发水库地震的可能性很小,而庙河一香溪库段存在有利干诱震的环境因子,发震的可能性较大,但其震级将不超过5 1/2级。

DISCUSSION ON THE PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR-INDUCEDEARTHQUAKE FROM THE ENVIRONMNTAL CONDITIONS OFXINFENGJIANG RESERVOIR EARTHQUAKE

An earthquake of M=6. 1 occurred at Xinfengjiang Reservoir. It is related with the infiltration-storage of water in the reservoir area and the active structure inducing the earthquake. In prediction of reservoir -induced earthquake , we should pay attention to study overall environmental conditions of the reservoirarea. A comparison of the combined environmental conditions of xinfengjiang Rsservoir and the Three Gorge Reservoir on changjiang River, we suggests that the possibitliy of reservoir-earthquake at the Sandouping Dam site of the Three Gorge Reservior is very little, but the environmental factors favourable to inducing earthquake exist on the Miaohe -xiangxi segment of the reservoir where the possibility of earthquake occurrence is great , but the magnitude will not exceed M = 5(1/2).