水资源承载力动态预测与调控——以黄河流域为例

为准确预测区域水资源承载力的变化趋势和制定优化的调控方案，从"经济社会-水资源-生态环境"系统互馈机理出发，建立水资源承载力水量、水质、水域空间、水流的全要素诊断体系，识别关键驱动指标；采用支持向量机、系统动力学等多种方法，建立水资源承载力定量动态预测模型，同时制定调控目标，结合分析驱动指标的实现难易程度和代价，采用正交试验方法，优选承载力提升和减负方案。应用于黄河流域水量要素承载力的诊断、预测与调控，结果表明，南水北调西线工程等调水工程运行前各规划水平年黄河流域、上游区、中游区、下游区均处于超载或严重超载状态，运行后均处于临界超载或超载状态，选择非常规水利用、入海水量、亩均灌溉用水量、灌溉面积、万元工业增加值用水量、工业增加值等6个关键驱动指标，进行正交试验，得到了各水平年水量承载力均不超载的最优调控方案，可为黄河流域水资源管理工作提供指导。

Dynamic prediction and regulation of water resource carrying capacity: a case study on the Yellow River basin

This study aimed to established the water resource carrying capacity of the Yellow River basin (YRB),China in respect to water quantity and quality to facilitate accurate prediction of changes in regional water resources carrying capacity and to formulate an optimal control plan based on the "economic society-water resources-ecological environment" mutual feedback mechanism. Various methods,including element diagnosis,identifying indicators of key drivers,integrating support vector machines and system dynamics were applied to establish a quantitative dynamic water resources carrying capacity simulation model for the YRB by formulating control objectives and analyzing the difficulty and cost of managing drivers of carrying capacity. The orthogonal test method was applied to improve the capacity and reduce load within the YRB. The six indicators of key drivers chosen were:① unconventional water utilization;② seawater intake;③ average irrigation water consumption;④ irrigation area;⑤ industrial value-added water consumption;⑥ 10,000 yuan industrial value-added water consumption. The simulation results showed that the upstream,middle and downstream areas of the YRB are currently in an overloaded or severely overloaded state at all planned levels before water transfer projects such as the West Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project become effective. The study identified the optimal control plan to avoid overloading of the annual water carrying capacity of the YRB at all levels and provides scientific guidance for water resources management of the YRB.