巨型古滑坡的稳定性评价及发展趋势分析

利用尖点突变模型进行滑坡稳定性评价，再以集合经验模态分解、GM(1,1)模型和支持向量机等方法为基础，构建滑坡变形预测模型。以变电站滑坡为例进行分析，结果表明，各监测点的突变特征值均大于0，即处于稳定状态；所得变形预测结果的平均相对误差均较小，验证了本文预测模型的有效性；通过外推预测，发现滑坡变形仍会进一步增加，稳定性变差。

Stability Evaluation and Development Trend Analysis of Giant Ancient Landslide

We use the cusp catastrophe model to evaluate the stability of landslide. Then we construct the combined landslide prediction model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition, GM (1,1) model and support vector machine. The analysis of Biandianzhan landslide shows that the catastrophe characteristic values of each monitoring point are greater than 0, that is, they are in a stable state. The average relative error of the prediction results is small, which verifies the applicability of the prediction model. Through extrapolation prediction, the landslide deformation will be further increased and the stability will get worse.