历史气候变化和社会经济发展的因果关系实证研究评述

本文根据近年来在历史气候变化和人类社会经济发展领域中因果关系的实证研究，特别是综合现有的定量研究成果，分析了历史上气候变化与人类社会经济发展的联系。结果表明，气候变化在最终和基本层面影响着社会经济发展。而且无论是长期还是短期的数据分析，气候短期波动或长期变化都会在社会经济发展中有所反映。从理论和方法学两个方面，这些研究成果促进了对气候变化影响下人类社会经济发展的认识，在全世界范围内都有学术借鉴意义和政策指导价值。

The Review of Causality Analysis on the Relationship Between Paleo-Climate Change and Socio-Economic Dynamics

The article reviews current studies in the field of causality analysis on the association between paleo-climate change and socio-economic dynamics, particularly from the quantitative results and achievements. These findings have justified the strong linkage between paleo-climate change and socio-economic development. Climate change has been proved as the fundamental factor affecting socio-economic process. No matter in the long term or short term, climate variation and climate change both could exert the effects on the human society. This progress has contributed to the knowledge on climate change and socio-economic development from both theoretical and methodological aspects. The research in this field has shown its value as the reference for policymakers in addition to its academic contribution.