基于EC模式闪电格点概率预报模型及应用

基于EC（0.25°×0.25°）模式预报资料和闪电定位资料，结合雷暴三要素形成条件，分别从水汽、能量、热力、动力等几个方面挑选预报因子，利用主成分分析方法配料权重系数，并根据海拔高度将四川划分为四川盆地、攀西地区、川西高原3个不同的区域分别建立预报模型，研发了四川省闪电格点概率预报产品。检验结果表明：四川盆地在概率预报值为70%以上时，预报效果较好，TS评分为0.294；攀西地区和川西高原在概率预报值为60%以上时，预报效果较好，TS评分分别为0.302和0.299。

Application of Lightning Grid Probability Prediction Products Based on EC Model

Based on EC (0.25°×0.25°) model forecast data and ADTD lightning location system, combined with the formation conditions of the three elements of a thunderstorm, the forecast factors are selected from the aspects of water vapor, unstable energy, thermodynamics and dynamics, and the weight coefficient is determined by the principal component analysis. Sichuan Province is divided into three regions (the Sichuan basin, Panxi area and Western Sichuan Plateau) according to the altitudes and the forecast model is established, respectively. The lightning grid probability prediction products are developed. The forecast test shows that the Sichuan basin has better forecast effect when the probability is 70%, and the TS scores are 0.294. The forecast effects in the Panxi area and the Western Sichuan Plateau are better when the probability is 60% and their TS scores are 0.302 and 0.299, respectively.