| 基于多元逐步回归分析的煤储层含气量预测模型--以沁水盆地为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 李贵红,张泓,崔永君,张培河,董敏涛.基于多元逐步回归分析的煤储层含气量预测模型--以沁水盆地为例[J].煤田地质与勘探,2005,33(3):22-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李贵红 张泓 崔永君 张培河 董敏涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 煤炭科学研究总院西安分院,陕西,西安,710054 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2002CB211703)和科技部社会公益专项资金项目(2001DIA10016) |
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| 摘 要： | 以沁水盆地为例，运用多元逐步回归分析方法，建立了以Langmuir体积和含气饱和度为参数的含气量预测模型；复相关系数、F检验、t检验结果表明，该模型满足线性与方差齐性的假设，拟合效果较好。运用此模型，结合多因素权重分析确定的含气饱和度和实测的Langmuir体积数据，实现了沁水盆地山西组主煤层含气量预测。对比分析显示，该含气量预测模型有一定的可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 煤储层 含气量 多元逐步回归分析 预测模型 沁水盆地 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-1986(2005)03-0022-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年10月28 |
A predictive model of gas content in coal reservoirs based on multiple stepwise regression analysis: a case study from Qinshui Basin |
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| LI Gui-hong,ZHANG Hong,CUI Yong-jun,ZHANG Pei-he,DONG Min-tao.A predictive model of gas content in coal reservoirs based on multiple stepwise regression analysis: a case study from Qinshui Basin[J].Coal Geology & Exploration,2005,33(3):22-25. |
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| Authors: | LI Gui-hong ZHANG Hong CUI Yong-jun ZHANG Pei-he DONG Min-tao |
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| Abstract: | Taken Qinshui Basin as an example a predictive model of gas content is established by multiple stepwise regression analysis, using Langmuir volume and gas saturation as its parameters. The result of multiple correlation coefficient testing, F-testing and t-testing indicates that the model meets the hypothesis testing of linearity and its matching effect is preferable. Based on the model and combined with gas saturation determined by the multifactor weight analysis and tested Langmuir volume data the gas content of main coal from the Shanxi Formation in the Qinshui Basin is predicted successfully. The comparative result indicates that the model is feasible to some extent. |
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| Keywords: | coal reservoir gas content multiple stepwise regression analysis predictive model Qinshui Basin |
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