珠海市台风及其次生风暴潮特征分析与评估

基于1961—2018年广东省珠海市气象观测资料以及珠海三灶站1964—2018年逐日潮位数据，分别对珠海市台风及风暴潮进行特征分析和频率计算。通过构建台风数据集，计算得到影响珠海的可能最强台风的中心气压、移动速度、最大风速半径以及可能移动路径，并模拟该台风引起的珠海三灶站的最高潮位和极值增水，最后通过1713号台风“天鸽”和1822号台风“山竹”对模拟结果进行了验证，验证结果与计算方案下强台风级别在台山登陆引起的计算结果一致。 

ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON INDUCED STORM SURGE IN ZHUHAI

Based on the meteorological observation data in Zhuhai from 1961 to 2018 and tide data of Sanzao in Zhuhai from 1964 to 2018, we anayzed the characteristics and calculated the frequency of typhoon and storm surge in Zhuhai. Through building the typhoon data set, we calculated the central pressure, moving speed, maximum wind radius and possible path of the possible strongest typhoon in Zhuhai. We simulated the highest tide level and maximum storm surges of Sanzao in Zhuhai by the possible strongest typhoon. We verified the simulation with the data of Typhoon No.1713 (HATO) and No.1822 (MANGKHUT), and it was proved that the simulation results are consistent with the calculated data of strong typhoon landed in Taishan.