北京主城区伪基站活动时空特征及其影响因素

利用北京主城区2017-02-23—04-26的垃圾短信数据反映伪基站的活动轨迹，通过核密度估计分析伪基站的时空特征；以1 km格网为研究单元，采用空间计量模型定量分析了建成环境与社会经济因素对伪基站分布的影响。结果发现：1）伪基站活动呈现出明显的时空集聚，空间上东多西少，最大的热点区域位于国贸。2）伪基站活动存在显著的空间自相关性，邻近区域伪基站发送垃圾短信增加1%，相应本区域增加约0.7%。3）建成环境因素中，正向影响最大的是商业和住宅，负向影响最明显的是酒店设施，教育设施存在显著的负空间溢出效应；交通方面，地铁站对伪基站活动的吸引作用仅存在于邻近区域。4）社会经济因素中体现了伪基站活动与低收入群体、人流活动和老龄人口均存在一定正相关性。

Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Fake Base Stations’ Activity in Beijing

China suffers from an increasingly serious threat of SMS spam. The current prevention and control is mainly in the mobile phone to intercept spam messages. In order to suppress the SMS spam effectively, it is necessary to fight against fake base stations (FBSes) from the source. Therefore, it is of great significance to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution and influencing factors of SMS spam sent by FBSes. This study uses the two-month SMS spam data of urban areas in Beijing to reflect the trajectory of FBSes, analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics by kernel density estimation. With the 1km grid as the research unit, we then employed spatial econometric model to quantitatively analysis the effect (including direct and indirect effects) of the built environment and social environment on FBSes. The results show that: 1) The FBSes shows significant space-time agglomeration, and largest hot spot located in the CBD area near Guomao. 2) Because of the diffusivity, the activities of FBSes in a grid increased by about 0.7% for every 1% increase in the average of neighboring grids. 3) Different spatio-temporal distributions of FBSes are influenced by disparate factors, commercial and residential facilities have the most significant positive impacts. The negative impact of hotel facilities is greatest, and there is a certain negative impact from educational facilities, house prices and FBSes. The attraction of subway stations to FBSes in traffic area only exists in the neighboring area. 4) The social and economic factors embody the positive correlation between FBSes and low income group, the flow of people and the aged population. This study expands the quantitative research of FBSes and SMS spam from the perspective of geography, which could potentially help reduce FBSes in the micro-scale of internal urban and provide reference for the management of the city.