珠海市镇域耕地多功能性与安全耦合协调度分析

以土地利用数据和社会经济统计数据为基础，集成综合指数模型、耦合协调模型和地理探测器，从镇域尺度探讨了1990-2015年珠海市耕地多功能性与安全耦合协调度的时空变化及其影响因子。结果表明：1）珠海市镇域耕地多功能性与安全耦合协调度的演变在1990-2000年间相对平缓；而在2000-2015年间相对剧烈，总体上全市耦合协调度均值由1990年的0.65降为2015年的0.59。2）珠海市镇域耕地多功能性与安全耦合协调度下降区域主要分布在东部，上升区域主要分布在西部，整体呈西部耦合协调度高于中部和东部的分布格局。3）根据地理探测器的结果可知，土地垦殖率、种植业占GDP比重、各类作物产量、化肥农药施用量等是珠海市镇域耕地多功能性与安全耦合协调度演变的主导影响因子。

Coupling Coordination Degree Analysis between Multifunctionality and Security of Cultivated Land at Town Scale in Zhuhai

Cultivated land can be regarded as a coupled system defined by human-nature interaction. The multifunctionality and security of it are therefore critical to the sustainable development of both the cultivated land and the human society. Furthermore, studying the coupled and coordinated development between the multifunctionality and security of the cultivated land is also the key to enhance its utilization and protection. For the town of Zhuhai, in particular, it is important to carry out such a study in a period of rapid urbanization. Therefore, taking Zhuhai as the study area, and utilizing land use data and socio-economic statistical data covering the period 1990-2015, this work investigates the temporal and spatial variation of the coupling coordination degree between multifunctionality and security of cultivated land by means of the comprehensive index evaluation method and the coupling coordination degree model. Besides, by using a new statistical method, the Geodetector, this article work also reveals the main factors controlling the development of the coupling coordination degree. Conclusions are drawn as follows: 1) the temporal variation of the coupling coordination degree between multifunctionality and security of cultivated land at town scale in Zhuhai is relatively steady in the period 1990-2000 but drastic in the period 2000-2015; in general, it decreases from 0.65 to 0.59 from 1990 to 2015; 2) the spatial variation of the coupling coordination degree exhibits an increasing trend in the western area, and a decreasing trend in the eastern area from 1990 to 2015; on the whole, its spatial distribution pattern shows that the western area is higher than the central and eastern areas; 3) according to the Geodetector, different factors have a different impact on the development of the coupling coordination degree: land reclamation rate, planting industry's proportion in GDP, output of crops, amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides are the main factors affecting the development of coupling coordination degree, since they affect the cultivated land resource endowment, the utilization efficiency, the planting structure, and the input of chemical substances.