干、湿月游程的Markov链模拟

本文以文献^1]中提出的游程和转折点的概念。利用Markov链研究我国各大气候区若千代表测站干、湿月游程的统计特征,得到许多有实际应用意义的气候统计信息。此外,文中还对干、湿月转移概率矩阵的稳定性及其极限分布作了计算和讨论,其结果可直接提供长期预报的气候背景。

A MARKOV CHAIN SIMULATION FOR DRY AND WET MONTH RUNS

Much climatological-statistical information of practical significance has been obtained through the study of the statistical features of dry/wet month runs at a number of representative stations by using Markov chain and from the concepts of runs and turning points presented in Literature 1 In addition, the stability of the dry/wet month transition probability matrix and its limit distribution are discussed. The results in this study provide a climatic background for making long-term forecasts.