区域经济和环境对新兴城市影响的模拟

在参考现代经济增长模型、Logistic模式基础上,建立了资源和投资环境约束下的区域经济发展动力模式,有关模拟研究表明:(1)影响新兴城市(区域)劳动力规模的主要因子是区域资源对人口的承载力和劳动力的实际增长率,前者决定了区域(城市)劳动力的规模,后者则决定了城市(区域)增长的速度。而且承载力对平衡态区域劳动力规模的影响以及实际劳动力增长率对区域增长速度的影响都是线性的;(2)改善新兴城市的投资环境,使其比临近区域(城市)的投资环境更优越,该新兴城市(区域)的经济规模就将迅速发展。反之,如果该新兴城市(区域)的投资环境比临近区域(城市)的投资环境差,则该城市的经济规模将受极大的限制而无法做大。

The Simulation of the Impairing on a Developing City by Several Key Elements of Environment and Regional Economy

Regional growth is one of the key problems of the regional economic study. As the shortage of resources had not been fully realized, the binding force and the carrying capacity of environment and resource to labor (population) and regional economy were not taken into consideration in the classical theory of regional growth. Based on the modern economic growth model and Logistic population growth model, a dynamical model of regional growth bounded by the regional resource and investment environment is set up in this paper. By the regional growth dynamical model, taking the economic development in Jiangxi province since 1978 as an example, the simulation study on the key economic growth factors is conducted. The simulations show that: (1) The key factor influencing the labor scale of the developing city (region) is the carrying capacity of resources and the actual increase rate of labor. The former determines the labor scale of the developing city (region), while the latter restricts the speed of regional growth. Furthermore, the influences that the carrying capacity of resources acts to the scale of regional labor and the actual labor growth rate acts to the regional growth speed are linear. (2) We should improve the investment environment of the developing city (region) and make it much better than that of the neighborhood city (region) so as to develop its economic scale further. Whereas, if its investment environment is worse than that of the neighborhood city (region), its economic scale will be limited to some degree and cannot be enlarged. (3) Among all the economic factors, the magnitude of the effects on regional growth is in the turn of the difference of the internal and external investment environment, the difference of the average wage inside and outside the region, and the saving rate. Thus, improving the investment environment and increasing the average wage inside the region are the two most important internal powers to assure the city development steadily and constantly.