石家庄春季自然物候对气候变化的响应研究

分析了石家庄1965-2007年杨絮始落、鸭梨始花和刺槐盛花3种植物物候期的变化特征以及对气候的响应规律。结果表明：（1）石家庄春季物候期普遍提早，早春的物候期提前天数多，晚春物候期提早天数少。石家庄春季物候现象普遍存在着2～3年的周期。（2）通过计算石家庄春季物候与气温、日照和降水量的相关关系，发现与气温的关系最好，与降水日数表现出弱的相关性，与日照关系不明显，说明气温是影响石家座春季物候的主导气象因子，GDD是衡量植物热量供应的较好指标，而日照对物候期影响表现出不同物种和不同物候现象间的差异性特征。（3）石家庄春季物候期与ENSO事件也表现出一定的关系，在暖事件年以物候期偏早为主，在冷事件年无明显早晚趋势。

Response of Spring Phenology to Climate Change in Shijiazhuang Gity

Spring phenological change in Shijiazhuang city in 1965-2007 and its response to climatic change were analysed. The results show： （ 1 ） Spring phenology occur earlier in last 40 years, and the earlier long term mean appearance date of phonological stage is, the more advanced days is. （2） There is a high correlation between spring phenology and temperature, slight correlation between spring phenology and days of precipitation. Growing degree days （ GDD ） is a better index than single monthly temperature in evaluating the time evolution of phenology. The effect of sun on phenology is different in different region. （ 3 ） relationship between phenology and ENSO events is good, there is a high probability of earlier phonological appearance date in El Nino year and later one in la Nina year.