新疆相对资源承载力及可持续发展时空演变特征分析

自然资源和经济资源禀赋是支撑区域人口发展的重要保障,是可持续发展的基础。本文利用改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000—2010年新疆的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力,探讨新疆15个地区（州、市）相对资源承载力的时空演变及差异特征。结果表明:（1）以中国西部地区为参照区,新疆2000—2005年处于人口非常富余、经济超载阶段;2006—2010年是人口、经济双重非常富余阶段。（2）与西部12省(市、区)相比,能源资源是新疆的优势资源,水资源是制约新疆人口、经济发展的劣势资源。（3）以新疆为参照区,相对资源人口承载力非常富余度最大的是克拉玛依市,超载最严重的是喀什地区;相对资源经济承载力超载最严重的是吐鲁番地区,非常富余度最大的是克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州。（4）依据相对资源人口、经济承载力超载、富余状态将15个地区（州、市）归为4类资源承载力匹配区。

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Sustainable Development in Xinjiang Based on Improved Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources

Endowment of natural resources and economic resources is not only important guarantee of regional population development, but also basis of sustainable development. Based on the improved model of relative carrying capacity of resources, we calculate the relative population carrying capacity of resources as well as relative economics carrying capacity of resources in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2010. We also discuss the temporal evolution and differences characteristics of 15 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang. The implications from the study are as follows: (1) Western China regions as the reference areas, Xinjiang was in surplus population and economy overload stage between 2000 and 2005; from 2006 to 2010 in double surplus stage. (2) Compared with twelve western provinces, energy resources were advantageous to sustainable development of Xinjiang, while water resources were restricting the population and economic development. (3) Setting Xinjiang as the reference zone, Karamay City and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture had the largest surplus degree of relative population and economic carrying capacity of resources, and the most overload areas were Kashgar and Turpan. (4) According to the bearing state of relative population and economic carrying capacity of resources, we classified 15 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang into four matching models.