未来中国纯电动汽车的节能减排效益分析

采用燃料生命周期方法，选取能耗、CO₂、NO_x和SO₂排放等关键节能减排指标，对我国纯电动汽车、汽油汽车和混合动力汽车进行比较分析。通过对2010年和2020年两个时间点的考察，发现推广纯电动汽车并不一定有利于节能减排：在2010年技术水平和能源结构下，纯电动汽车的燃料周期能耗和CO₂排放低于燃油汽车（包括汽油汽车和混合动力汽车)，但NO_x和SO₂排放要高出燃油汽车50%以上；到2020年，若国家相关规划目标得以实现，纯电动汽车的燃料周期能耗和CO₂排放将比2010年下降30%左右，NO_x和SO₂排放将比2010年下降80%以上，但由于发动机技术迅速改进等原因，届时纯电动汽车的燃料周期CO₂、NO_x和SO₂排放等都高于混合动力汽车。在此基础上，进一步分析了纯电动汽车节能减排效益的不确定性，并提出改善纯电动汽车节能减排效益的政策建议，如将纯电动汽车的推广与电力系统改造行动结合起来、基于能耗水平对纯电动汽车和燃油汽车进行分类管理等。

Prospective for Energy and Environmental Performances of Battery Electric Vehicle in China

Based on fuel-cycle method, this paper tries to conduct a quantitative analysis on the energy and environmental performances of battery electric vehicle (BEV) in China. Four critical indicators, energy consumption, CO₂, NO_x and SO₂ emission, are selected for the comparison of the performances of BEV, internal combustive engineering vehicle (ICEV) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) in 2010 and 2020. The findings show that in 2010, the diffusion of BEV could reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emission, but BEV’s fuel-cycle NO_x and SO₂ emissions are higher than fuel-engined vehicles’ (both ICEV and HEV) by 50% at least. In 2020, if the targets in government planning are reached, BEV’s fuel-cycle energy consumption and CO₂ emission could be reduced by around 30% and its NO_x and SO₂ emissions could be reduced by around 80% compared with its counterpart in 2010. However, BEV’s fuel-cycle CO₂, NO_x and SO₂ emissions are still higher than HEV’s as a result of several reasons. In the end, policy recommendations for how to improve BEV’s energy and environmental performances are proposed, such as integrating the deployment of BEV into the progress of desulfurization and denitrification in electricity system, the management policy for automobiles should be based on vehicles’ energy efficiency, and so on.