河西内陆河径流对气候变化的响应及其流域适应性水资源管理研究

为探讨河西地区内陆河径流对气候变化的响应, 选取1955-2008年石羊河、黑河和疏勒河的河流流量资料进行计算和分析. 结果表明: 50多年来, 石羊河年径流总体呈明显下降趋势, 黑河呈略有增加趋势, 疏勒河呈明显增加趋势, 地域上呈现愈往西部的河流年径流量增加愈明显. 三大河流进入1990年代后有下降趋势, 进入21世纪均有明显增多趋势. 三大河流径流对气候变化有不同响应, 石羊河流域主要受季风气候影响, 气候变暖, 蒸发加剧, 水分散失量大, 是造成径流减少的主要原因;黑河和疏勒河流域主要受西风带环流影响, 径流增多的重要原因是气候变暖降水明显增多. 为减缓气候变化对流域水资源利用的不利影响, 在分析三大内陆河流量对气候变化响应特征的基础上, 提出了适应性水资源管理的建议. 建议应提高水资源利用效率;改变生产方式, 调整农业种植业结构与布局;加大祁连山自然保护区建设, 搞好水资源可持续利用;积极开发祁连山丰富的空中云水资源、哺育祁连山冰川等流域适应性水资源管理对策, 对流域进行综合治理与开发利用, 这些措施和对策将为流域水资源开发提供科学依据.

A Study on Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff of Inland Rivers and Adaptive Water Resource Managements in Hexi Corridor

The runoffs of the Shiyang River, Heihe River and Shule River from 1955 to 2008 were calculated and analyzed in order to understand the impact characteristics of climate change on the runoff of inland rivers. It is found that in the Shiyang River runoff had obviously decreased as a whole, in the Heihe River it had slightly increased and in the Shule River it had significantly increased. There was a decreasing tendency of the three rivers in the 1990s, but it has shifted to increasing in the early 21st century. The impacts of climate change on the three rivers are different. The Shiyang River basin is affected mostly by monsoon climate, where climate is warming, evapotranspiration is increasing and water consumption is increasing too, resulting in decreasing runoff. The basins of Hehei River and Shule River are mainly controlled by westerly, where runoff increasing is basically due to climate warming and precipitation increasing. In order to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on river basin water resource utilization, an idea of adaptive management of water resources is put forward based on analyzing the impact characteristics of climate change on runoff of the three rivers. It is suggested that: 1) scientific management of water resources should be practiced and water use efficiency should be improved;2) the Qilian Mountain Nature Reserve project construction and the sustainable utilization of water resources should be improved;3) the model of production should be changed and the structure of plant should be adjusted, and the crop area should be controlled according to the amount of water resource;4) the cloud water resources in the air should be developed actively, and the Qilian Mountain's glaciers should be nourished. It is believed that these measures and countermeasures are able to provide scientific basis for comprehensive governance, scientific development and utilization of water resources in inland river basin.