利用树轮年表重建新疆博州中东部1622—2010年降水量

利用小海子（XHZ）采样点标准化树轮年表重建了博尔塔拉蒙古自治州(简称博州)中东部地区1622—2010年上年7月至当年6月降水量,相关系数为0.599,方差解释量达35.8%（调整自由度后为34.6%）。利用多种统计参数和独立资料对重建结果进行验证,表明降水量重建值具有较好的可信性。对重建降水量的分析表明:在这389年中,博州中东部地区降水量大体经历7个偏少阶段和7个偏多阶段,且与天山山区年降水显著相关,在波动上也比较一致;重建降水量序列具有2年左右的显著准周期。

Utilizing Tree-ring Chronologies to Reconstruct Precipitation Series at the North Slope of Western Tianshan Mountains

In this paper, the tree-ring data of Picea schrenkiana growing in the Middle and Eastern of Boertala Mongolia Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang of China are used to analyze the response of tree-ring width to climatic elements in the Tianshan Mountains region. The results show that the dominant factor affecting the radial growth of Picea schrenkiana is precipitation. The linear regression model is used to establish a transfer function to reveal the relationship between the standardized chronology of tree-ring width and the annual precipitation from previous July to next June at the Bole and Jinghe Meteorological Stations. The precipitation data was reconstructed during 1622-2010. The explained variance of the transfer function is 35.8% and passed the statistical test well. The reconstructed precipitation series is consistent well with the drought history record in this region. The change trend of precipitation in the study area is consistent with that in the whole Tianshan Mountains. Analysis on the variation of precipitation series over the past 389 years showed that the reconstructed precipitation series had significant change periods of two-years, and there were 7 wet periods above precipitation mean value and 7 dry periods below precipitation mean value over the past 389 years.