河源地区气温变化特征及其与ENSO的关系

利用河源地区5个气象站1960—2016年的逐月平均气温、NOAA逐月海温等资料,采用线性倾向、Mann-Kendall检验等统计方法,分析了河源地区气温变化特征及其对ENSO事件的响应。结果表明:河源地区年平均气温及季平均气温均呈递增趋势,且夏、秋、冬季和年平均气温气温上升趋势显著;河源地区气温在20世纪80年代中后期—90年代末发生1次较为明显的由冷到暖的突变;年平均气温存在5~6、14~15及24 a的周期变化规律;在El Ni1o事件中,河源地区年平均气温有偏高趋势,La Ni1o事件,则反之;ENSO事件对气温的影响存在滞后性,对河源地区的气温影响最明显表现在次年。

Characteristics of Temperature Variations of Heyuan area and Their Relationships with ENSO

Abstract:Using the monthly average temperature and monthly NOAA sea surface temperature data of 5 meteorological stations in Heyuan area in 1960-2016 years , this paper makes use of linear tendency, MannKendall test and other statistical methods to analyze temperature variation in Heyuan area and its response to ENSO events.The results show that the annual mean temperature and seasonal average temperature in Heyuan area are increasing, and the annual average temperature in summer, autumn, winter and annual average temperature are increasing significantly.The temperature in Heyuan area changed obviously from cold to warm from the middle and late period of 1980s to the end of 90s.The annual mean temperature has a periodic variation of 5 ~ 6, 14 ~ 15 and 24 years.In El Ni?o event, the annual mean temperature in Heyuan area tends to be higher ,but it is contrary in La Ni?a event.The effect of ENSO events on air temperature is lagging behind, and the most obvious effect on temperature in Heyuan area shows in the following year.