基于灾损评估的青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划

利用青海高原1961-2010年42个气象站逐次冰雹过程及其灾情信息, 采用滑动平均、 标准归一化及线性回归等方法, 在分析致灾因子危险性、 承灾体易损性评估指标的基础上, 建立了冰雹灾害区划模型, 并结合ArcGIS9.3平台得到青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划图. 结果表明: 青海东部农业区、 环青海湖地区、 柴达木盆地东部及三江源地区中东部为易受冰雹灾害影响的特高风险或高风险区域; 祁连山地区为中风险区, 而低风险区则位于柴达木盆地中、 西部. 区划结果与历史冰雹灾情基本吻合, 旨在为该区防灾减灾提供科学依据.

Division of Hail Disaster Risk Scales in Qinghai Plateau Based on Damage Assessment

In the paper, an assessment model of hail disaster in the Qinghai Plateau is built using data of each time hail hazard from 42 weather stations from 1961 to 2010, by means of moving average, standard normalization and linear regression methods. Analyzing the disaster risk levels,the vulnerability of hazard-affected body and the disaster prevention ability, division of hail disaster risk scales in the Qinghai Plateau is made by using ArcGIS9.3. The results show that the highest-risk areas are mainly in the eastern agriculture region, around the Qinghai Lake, the eastern Qaidam Basins and the eastern and middle headwaters of the three main rivers, The Qilian Mountains is a middle-risk area. The lowest risk areas are in the middle and western of the Qaidam Basins. The division basically coincides with the history records of hail disasters, which is useful for prevention and mitigation of hail disasters in the Qinghai Plateau.