特大洪水日地水文学长期预测

对于大江大河重现期为 5 0 10 0a的因暴雨产生的特大洪水 ,要提前 0 5a作出确定性预测和最大洪峰流量预报 ,国内外学者一般认为 ,由于缺乏相应的预测理论和方法 ,实际上不可能。笔者积40a的研究 ,在所创建的日地水文学理论和大洪水长期预测方法多次应用成功的基础上 ,对于 1998年长江特大洪水 ,先提前 10a作出初步预测 ,临期又提前 0 5a作出定性和定量预报。其依据是太阳活动、西太平洋海温下降、印度洋海温异常上升、东南非经南亚至中国西南气流异常降雨降雪、长江下游南侧特别是闽浙赣相邻地区前冬暴雨洪水 ,以及长江中游 133a来枯水季 1月破纪录罕见特高水位等一系列日地水文物理的新发现和先兆分析。经过和 1870年、195 4年、1931年等多次特大洪水的比较研究 ,从初步预测逐步深入 ,结果求得确定性预测。最后再根据上一次 2 2a周期性大洪水 ,按照日地水文相似模型 ,以太阳活动相对增量为参变量 ,建立最大洪峰流量预报公式 ,从而计算求得为80 0 0 0m3 /s。经 1998年 1月下旬提出预报 ,1998年 7月、8月已获得完全证实。在中国和全球大河中 ,80 0 0 0m3 /s特大洪水的成功长期预测 ,这是第一次。在洪水物理和定量预报上获得突破。

FROM SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL HYDROLOGY

The author has been probing into longterm prediction of floodsand droughts by combining hydrology, geography, meteorology, oceanography, geophysics and astronomy for 40 years and founded a new frontier disciplinesolar-terrestrial hydrology on the basis of water circulation in the Earth. This theory and prediction method revealing the essence and crux of appearance about catastrophic flood have been successfully used many times, for Yellow River in 1967,1981 and 1982 and for Yangtze River in 1981,1996.In the autumn of 1997, the author discovered the water vapor of a catastrophic flood in Yangtze River,which had carried by strong southwest monsoon laden with moisture,started from Indian Ocean and was very closely relevant to high temperature of sea surface. An important new physical model of oceanic forerunner is the cooling West Pacific Ocean and the warming Indian Ocean along the equator of the Earth.The sunspot cycle No.22 is stronger than cycle No.22. According to “strong cyclewet climate, weak cycledrought climate in China”, the author makes the comparison of sunspot relative number in whole cycle and for average year within the formula of solar-terrestrial hydrological similarity model and prediction that the maximum peak discharge of flood from Yichang to Datong is 80 000 m3/s.A preliminary prediction of this catastrophic flood was declared on September 6, 1988. Behind discovery of systematical forerunners about high SST over equatorial Indian ( 0～10° N, 50～90° E ), rainstorms and floods in South-Eastern Africa and South Asia, heavy snow in Tibet, winter rainstorms and floods in neighbor regions of Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi Provinces of China and especially the break record of highest level on January 1998 at Hankou for past 133 years also were predicted. A deterministic prediction and peak discharge quantitative forecast concluded and reported to the government on January 31, 1998. This prediction and forecast had perfectly verified in August 1998.The paper involves four parts: (1) theory and method of longterm prediction based on the solar-terrestrial hydrology and applications for recent 30 years, (2) prediction analysis of 1998 catastrophic flood for Yangtze River, such as basic concept, historical survey, analysis of forerunners, deterministic prediction and quantitative forecast, (3) verifications of Yangtze River flooding, (4) conclusion and discussion.