考虑时变影响的拱坝坝肩空间变形场预测

坝肩变形是拱坝坝肩稳定状态的综合反映，在运行期呈小变形变化，监测点测值在空间上具有连续性，同时影响拱坝坝肩变形的各种因素具有时变性。通过融合统计回归和多层递阶方法的特点，建立了反映变形场空间和时变特性的空间时变分析模型。实例分析表明，该模型实用有效，预测精度高。考虑时变影响可以提高拱坝坝肩空间变形场的预测能力，对监控拱坝坝肩的实际工作状况有重要意义。

Spatiotemporal forecasting of arch dam-abutment deformation considering time-varying effect

The stability of the dam-abutment is reflected synthetically by its deformation observation. The small deformation of the dam-abutment is continuous in working period and its influence factors have time-varying characteristic. Therefor a spatial-temporal series forecasting model is presented combining with regression model and multilayer recursion analysis method of dynamic system in this paper. The model syncretizes the strongpoint of regression analysis and recursive analysis and enhances the capability of forecasting evolution of the arch dam-abutment deformation. The engineering case analysis shows that the model is effective and applicable. There is a considerable merit for forecasting arch dam-abutment deformation to take into account time-varying effect of dam-abutment status.