Caribbean hurricanes: changes of intensity and track prediction

The meteorological conditions of hurricanes passing near Puerto Rico (18N, 68W) are analyzed using composite daily reanalysis and satellite data. When an intense hurricane is present, the regional circulation is dominated by upper easterly flow over the Caribbean and central Atlantic and a surge of low-level westerly anomalies across the tropics. Warm SST anomalies extend along the coast of Venezuela, doubling the convective energy available to Caribbean hurricanes. Intensifying hurricanes tend to propagate westward with an atmospheric ridge over the Gulf Stream, in an environment with aerosol optical depth <0.6. Hurricanes form and strengthen in the east-shear phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation. Sinking motions and dry air appear in an anti-cyclonic gyre behind intensifying hurricanes. Numerical model 48-h forecasts of Caribbean hurricane tracks are analyzed over the period 2000–2010. A “slow right” bias is found east of Puerto Rico in comparison with observed.