广州市水资源承载力的主成分分析

水资源承载力是衡量经济社会可持续发展的重要指标。本文以广州市水资源承载力为研究对象，在现有资料的基础上，运用主成分分析法从14个指标中提取出影响水资源承载力动态变化的两个主成分，并对广州市水资源承载力年际变化进行了综合评价。结果表明：2005—2010年，广州市水资源承载力呈现逐年下降的趋势。但就目前情况来看，通过扩展供水工程、加强节水措施等能缓解供需矛盾，水资源承载力还存在一定的提升空间。

Evaluation on water resources carrying capacity in Guangzhou City using principal components analysis.

Water resources carrying capacity is an important indicator to measure sustainable economic and so- cial development. In this paper, by taking the water resources carrying capacity of Guangzhou City as the re- search object, based on the available data, using principal components analysis to extract two principal compo- nents that affect the dynamic changes of water resources carrying capacity, and making a comprehensive eval- uation of annual variation of Guangzhou City. The results show that Guangzhou water resources carrying ca- pacity from 2005 to 2010 was declining, but so far as the status, by extending the water supply project and strengthening water saving measures to relieve the imbalance between supply and demand, the water resources carrying capacity of Guangzh0u still exists some rising space.