| 热带气旋路径客观业务预报综合方案的试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛宗元,吴天泉,费亮,徐静远. 热带气旋路径客观业务预报综合方案的试验[J]. 气象, 1990, 16(4): 9-14 |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛宗元 吴天泉 费亮 徐静远 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海台风研究所(薛宗元，吴天泉，费亮)，上海台风研究所(徐静远) |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 路径 预报 试验 |
A test on the comprehensive method for the tropical cyclone track forecast |
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| Abstract: | Here shows a new statistical system (CTFS) combining three differenttechniques,SD-85,CLIPER, and 500hPa steering which is being used atShanghai Typhoon Institute.Three sets of forecast components obtainedfrom the three methods mentioned-abbve are taken as new independentvariables.Then,stepwise regression analysis has been adopted to establishthe statistical relation between the actual displacement components and the above variables. Finally, the system was tested on operational data for 1987 and 1988.The results show that the new system is more advanced than its three sub-method in respect of forecast precision. |
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