| Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction |
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| 摘 要： |
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 昆仑山口 大地震 2001年11月 地震前兆 |
| 收稿时间： | 17 April 2002 |
| 修稿时间： | 21 December 2002 |
Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction |
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| Authors: | Liu Pu-xiong Zheng Da-lin Che Shi Pan Huai-wen Liu Gui-ping and Yang Li-ming |
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| Institution: | (1) Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, 100036 Beijing, China;(2) China Seismological Bureau, 100036 Beijing, China;(3) Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Seismological Bureau, 730000 Lanzhou, China |
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| Abstract: | A great earthquake of M
S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis
shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns
before the earthquake of M
S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M
S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M
S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor
and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some
problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes. |
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| Keywords: | seismicity earthquake prediction great Kunlun Pass earthquake of M S=8 1 |
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