基于贝叶斯网络的南水北调工程运行综合风险分析

南水北调工程是目前我国最大的调水工程。随着工程的建设和运行,由不确定性问题引起的风险问题越来越受到关注,工程运行的风险分析也摆在管理者的面前,如何识别、评估、降低和控制风险的发生成为南水北调工程运行中的一个重要问题。本文首次将贝叶斯网络理论引入到南水北调综合风险分析中,选取东线工程宝应抽水泵站为研究对象,利用贝叶斯网络推理功能得出宝应站运行综合风险发生的概率为0.025%,风险发生的等级为"较低"。利用情景分析的方法,得出在影响综合风险的因素中,泵站的管理维护状况条件改变时,综合风险变化最大,因此需要予以重点关注。

The Evaluation of the Integrated Risk for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project Using the Bayesian Network Theory

The South-to-North Water Transfer(SNWT)Project is one of the four largest trans-boundary projects in China.With the construction and operation of the project,increased attention has been paid to the risk factors which are induced by the uncertainties.The analysis and management of integrated risk are also put before the project managers.It is extremely important to reduce and control the integrated risks involved in the operation of the project.In this study,Baoying Station on the eastern route of the SNWT Project was chosen as the study area,and Bayesian Network(BN)theory is used to evaluate the probability of the integrated risks.Based on the reasoning of BN,the final integrated risk probability of Baoying Station is estimated to be 0.025% and the risk level is"lower level".Analysis of the scenario shows that the probability of integrated risk is most severe when management and maintenance conditions of the pump in use deteriorates.More attention should be paid to this important risk factor during the operation of the project.