嘉兴市夏季水泥地面温度特征分析与预报

对嘉兴市2006、2007年夏季（6-9月）生态观测场水泥地面温度与同步观测的百叶箱自动观测空气温度资料进行统计分析,结果表明：夏季水泥地温的平均温度、极端最高温度均与百叶箱温度在日、月、季同步变化,但差异特点明显,最大差异表现在夏季日最高温度上;夏季24 h各时次的温度变化与百叶箱温度比较,水泥地温度具有极端最高温度出现早、高温时间短、差异大、早晨最低温度接近并略偏高的特性;夏季水泥地面最高温度与日照、降水、风向风速、相对湿度等要素密切相关。采用最优子集回归方案和卡尔曼二次滤波预报方案对水泥地面最高温度作定量预报输出,结合不同天气（晴天、多云到阴、降水）类型给予不同的人工修正,能在实际专业预报服务中取得较好的效果,可提高夏季城市专项气象服务水平。

Analysis and Forecasting of Summer Cement-Surface Temperature in Jiaxing

The statistical relationship of cement surface temperature and temperature observed simultaneously by the automatic temperature recorder in screen at Jiaxing Station in the summers of 2006 and 2007 (June to September) is analyzed. The results indicate that the average and extreme maximum summer cement surface temperatures change simultaneously with the temperature in screen at the scales of day, month and quarter, but there is obvious difference between them, which is mainly manifested in the maximum temperature. Comparing with the temperature in screen, the cement surface temperature has such features as earlier appearing of extreme maximum temperature, shorter high temperature episodes, greater difference, minimum temperature in morning close to temperature in screen or slightly higher. The cement surface maximum temperature in summer is related closely to sunshine duration, precipitation, wind direction and wind speed, relative humidity, etc. By means of the second Kalman filter and Optimal subset regression, the quantitative prediction outputs of the cement surface maximum temperature are given and revised artificially according to different weather situations (sunny, cloudy, precipitation). Those equations proved satisfactory in accuracy in forecasting operation and can help improve the specialized meteorological services.