河南省层波状云系飞机人工增雨作业条件短期预测方法

对河南省春秋季降水以及云状特征的分析表明,河南省春秋季降水大多为层状云或波状云产生的稳定性降水,因而可采用对河南省分区分级进行降水预测的方法来确定适合飞机人工增雨的天气过程以及短期增雨区域。利用T213数值预报产品,运用逐步回归建立分区分级预报方程,并针对个别准确率较低的区域进行后处理。结果表明,用此方法对人工增雨作业进行指导是可行的。

Short-range Forecast of the Conditions of Artificial Precipitation Enhancement from Stratiform Cloud and Wave Cloud in Henan Province

The analysis of precipitation and cloud form in spring and autumn in Henan Province shows that the rainfall in these two seasons is mostly generated from stratiform cloud and wave cloud.So the method of precipitation classification forecast for sub-regions in Henan Province can be used to ascertain the time and region that are fit for artificial precipitation enhancement by aircraft.By using the products from NWP model T213 and successive regression,predictive equations for precipitation classification forecast in different sub-regions are set up.In addition,a post-processing method is used to improve the forecast of the sub-region which is of low accuracy.The results show that this method can be a guidance for artificial precipitation enhancement.