Statistical downscaling of extremes of precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenarios in an elevated and cold zone |
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Authors: | Xiaoyan?Wang Email author" target="_blank">Tao?YangEmail author Quanxi?Shao Kumud?Acharya Weiguang?Wang Zhongbo?Yu |
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Institution: | (1) State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, The People’s Republic of China;(2) CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA, 6913, Australia;(3) Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas, NV 89119, USA; |
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Abstract: | Reliable projections of extremes at finer spatial scales are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change
on societal and natural systems, particularly for elevated and cold regions in the Tibetan Plateau. This paper presents future
projections of extremes of daily precipitation and temperature, under different future scenarios in the headwater catchment
of Yellow River basin over the 21st century, using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicate that: (1)
although the mean temperature was simulated perfectly, followed by monthly pan evaporation, the skill scores in simulating
extreme indices of precipitation are inadequate; (2) The inter-annual variabilities for most extreme indices were underestimated,
although the model could reproduce the extreme temperatures well. In fact, the simulation of extreme indices for precipitation
and evaporation were not satisfactory in many cases. (3) In future period from 2011 to 2100, increases in the temperature
and evaporation indices are projected under a range of climate scenarios, although decreasing mean and maximum precipitation
are found in summer during 2020s. The findings of this work will contribute toward a better understanding of future climate
changes for this unique region. |
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