多维邻近性与城-城流动人口的流入地选择——基于嵌套Logit模型的实证分析

基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据，采用嵌套Logit模型分析了地理、制度、信息和知识等多维邻近性对城-城流动人口流入地选择的影响。结果表明：城-城流动人口倾向于流入与户籍地地理相邻、制度相似、信息联系密切以及与自身知识水平相匹配的城市，这在一定程度上缓解人口向工资水平高、就业机会多和公共服务水平好的大城市集聚的趋势；不同维度的邻近性之间存在替代效应，省内流动能够降低距离对流入地选择的负面影响；多维邻近性的影响强度存在群体差异，女性对知识邻近性更加敏感；新生代流动人口对正式制度和信息邻近的城市有更强的偏好，但受知识邻近性的影响较弱；高学历群体更能远距离、跨省迁移并受到城市间互联网信息联系更强的影响；而有过流动经历的劳动力再流动时更能克服地理、文化和知识距离的限制。

How Multi-Proximity Affects Destination Choice in Urban-Urban Migration:An Analysis Based on Nested Logit Model

As entering into middle-and-late-stage of urbanization, China’s rural-urban migrants has slowly declined after decades of growth while the amount of urban-urban migrants continues to increase. The migration flow among cities reflects the rational choice of the urban population and has a profound impact on the urban system and urban development. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the mechanism of urban-urban migration flows in China for realizing rational and orderly distribution of urban population. Focused on urban-urban migrants who differ from other types of migrants in several ways, this paper develops a framework of how multi-proximity, which includes geographical proximity, institutional proximity, informational proximity and knowledge proximity, makes an influence on destination choice by affecting the migration cost. Based on data from the 2017 China Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey, and by using the nested logit model, we empirically tested the proximity-migration relationship. The results show that multi-proximity has a significant and robust impact on migrants’ destination choice after controlling for the effects of cities’ characteristics. Urban-urban migrants prefer destinations that are geographically adjacent to their origins and those located in the same province and dialect area. Besides, they are more likely to choose cities which are closely connected with their origins and match them well in education background. Substitutional effect is also found between geographical and formal institutional proximity. But the effect of multi-proximity varies among sub-groups of intercity migrants. This is reflected in the following facts. First, women are more sensitive to knowledge proximity than men. Second, young migrants are less affected by knowledge proximity but relies more on informational and formal institutional proximity than the older. Third, highly educated labors are more able to migrate over a long distance and across provinces, and are affected more by internet information flow between cities than their counterparts. Finally, onward migrants can get over the barriers of geography, culture and knowledge better owing to their accumulation of experience in the previous migration experiences. Empirical results also verified the clear preference of labors for large cities with high wages, abundant job opportunities and adequate public services. But the preference can be relieved by the effect of multi-proximity. Empirical results of this study indicate that policy makers of small cities can strengthen local attraction to the surrounding areas through industrial development and public service improvement to avoid increasingly severe outflow of labors and maintain long-term competitiveness.